Aldeyra Therapeutics · reproxalap · Apr 2025 – Sep 2026

What did the FDA's 2025 letter say about Study 030, and how did Aldeyra describe it?

The letter's readable pages cite baseline differences, an analysis it calls problematic, and a reanalysis that is not statistically significant. Aldeyra's filings describe a baseline difference and “methodological issues”.

EphemerisX Research · Published · 5 source documents · 2 min read

Short answer

On its readable pages, the April 2025 letter questions the baseline difference between groups, calls the Study 030 primary analysis problematic and not robust, and says that analyzed like Study 024 the study does not achieve statistical significance. Aldeyra's 8-K reports the baseline difference and methodological issues; it does not mention the reanalysis, and neither do its May and June 2025 releases or its February 2026 10-K.

What the evidence shows

Page 1 of the letter, which holds its first numbered items, is a scanned image with no text layer. On page 2: It is not clear that the models proposed by you adequately account for the difference in baseline FDA · Apr 2, 2025 · p. 2, and The difference in the Visit 4 baseline of greater than 7 between raises concerns of whether these reflect similar populations FDA · Apr 2, 2025 · p. 2.

Then: The Agency finds the Study 030 primary efficacy endpoint analysis problematic, and we do not find the study results to be robust FDA · Apr 2, 2025 · p. 2. And: When Study 030 is analyzed in a similar method to Study 024 from the initial submission (Visit 4 DEC score at each timepoint as the dependent variable), the study does not achieve statistical significance FDA · Apr 2, 2025 · p. 2.

Aldeyra's 8-K, filed the next day, says the letter identified concerns with the data from the trial submitted to the NDA that may have affected interpretation of the results, which the FDA stated may be related to methodological issues, including a difference in baseline scores across treatment arms 8-K · Apr 3, 2025. The April 2025 8-K, its press release and its presentation do not name Study 030 or Study 024 and do not mention the analysis in which Study 030 does not achieve statistical significance. 8-K · searched

Later filings describe it this way. May 2025: concerns including a baseline difference across treatment arms 8-K · May 6, 2025. February 2026, in the 10-K: the letter was issued based primarily on a baseline imbalance in symptom scores across treatment arms and other statistical comments 10-K · Feb 27, 2026. The May and June 2025 8-Ks and the February 2026 10-K do not mention the letter's analysis of Study 030 by the Study 024 method. 8-K, 10-K · searched

In the 10-K's account, the FDA released a number of unpublished complete response letters issued associated with pending or withdrawn applications, including the reproxalap Complete Response Letter 10-K · Feb 27, 2026 in September 2025. In September 2026 Aldeyra's table gives, for 030, 030 Symptoms ✓ Methodological issues Endpoint met, methodological sensitivity testing supportive of outcome 8-K · Sep 29, 2026, noting that FDA position is Aldeyra’s abbreviated interpretation of FDA review 8-K · Sep 29, 2026.

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This investigation connects to

The documents, by date

FDA Complete Response Letter, April 2, 2025FDA letter · Apr 2, 2025Aldeyra Therapeutics Form 8-K, filed April 3, 20258-K · Apr 3, 2025Aldeyra Therapeutics Form 8-K, filed May 6, 20258-K · May 6, 2025Aldeyra Therapeutics Form 8-K, 10-K, filed May 6, 2025 – February 27, 20268-K, 10-K · May 6, 2025 – Feb 27, 2026Aldeyra Therapeutics Form 10-K, filed February 27, 202610-K · Feb 27, 2026Aldeyra Therapeutics Form 8-K, filed September 29, 20268-K · Sep 29, 2026

The passages quoted

FDA Complete Response Letter, April 2, 2025 · page 2

Study 030 was similar in design to Study 024 from the original submission. When Study 030 is analyzed in a similar method to Study 024 from the initial submission (Visit 4 DEC score at each timepoint as the dependent variable), the study does not achieve statistical significance.
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FDA Complete Response Letter, April 2, 2025 · page 2

You used Visit 2 and Visit 4 DEC results as the dependent variable and performed linear contrasts to obtain treatment differences between Visit 4 and Visit 2 results. The Agency finds the Study 030 primary efficacy endpoint analysis problematic, and we do not find the study results to be robust.
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FDA Complete Response Letter, April 2, 2025 · page 2

It is not clear that the models proposed by you adequately account for the difference in baseline.
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FDA Complete Response Letter, April 2, 2025 · page 2

The difference in the Visit 4 baseline of greater than 7 between raises concerns of whether these reflect similar populations. Ideally, baseline scores between groups should be similar.
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Aldeyra Therapeutics Form 8-K, filed April 3, 2025

The April 2025 8-K, its press release and its presentation do not name Study 030 or Study 024 and do not mention the analysis in which Study 030 does not achieve statistical significance.

Searched the whole document for: 024, 030, dependent variable, linear contrast, statistical significance, robust. None found.

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Aldeyra Therapeutics Form 8-K, filed April 3, 2025

Although no manufacturing or safety issues with reproxalap were identified, the FDA stated in the letter that the NDA “failed to demonstrate efficacy in adequate and well controlled studies in treating ocular symptoms associated with dry eyes” and that “at least one additional adequate and well controlled study to demonstrate a positive effect on the treatment of ocular symptoms of dry eye” should be conducted. The letter identified concerns with the data from the trial submitted to the NDA that may have affected interpretation of the results, which the FDA stated may be related to methodological issues, including a difference in baseline scores across treatment arms.
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Aldeyra Therapeutics Form 8-K, filed May 6, 2025

Aldeyra believes that the dry eye chamber trial results, which included no notable differences in baseline scores across treatment arms, potentially address the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) feedback in a Complete Response Letter received in April 2025 in response to the prior New Drug Application (NDA). The Complete Response Letter identified concerns with a previously completed dry eye chamber trial that may have affected the interpretation of the results, including a baseline difference across treatment arms.
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Aldeyra Therapeutics Form 8-K, 10-K, filed May 6, 2025 – February 27, 2026

The May and June 2025 8-Ks and the February 2026 10-K do not mention the letter's analysis of Study 030 by the Study 024 method.

Searched the whole document for: 024, dependent variable, linear contrast, does not achieve statistical significance. None found.

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Aldeyra Therapeutics Form 10-K, filed February 27, 2026

On April 3 2025, based primarily on a baseline imbalance in symptom scores across treatment arms and other statistical comments, Aldeyra announced that the FDA issued a CRL regarding the NDA resubmission, stating that the NDA did not demonstrate “efficacy in adequate and well controlled studies in treating ocular symptoms associated with dry eyes” and that “at least one additional adequate and well-controlled study to demonstrate a positive effect on the treatment of ocular symptoms of dry eye” should be conducted.
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Aldeyra Therapeutics Form 10-K, filed February 27, 2026

In July 2025, the FDA announced a policy shift toward public disclosure of complete response letters issued for drugs that had not been approved. Additionally, in September 2025, the FDA announced that it will release future complete response letters promptly after they are issued to sponsors and the agency released a number of unpublished complete response letters issued associated with pending or withdrawn applications, including the reproxalap Complete Response Letter.
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Aldeyra Therapeutics Form 8-K, filed September 29, 2026

The table presents the primary endpoints from all proposed commercial dosing regimen efficacy trials of reproxalap that were submitted to the dry eye disease NDA. FDA position is Aldeyra’s abbreviated interpretation of FDA review. Trials=ADX-102-DED-xxx where xxx is the trial number, Symptoms=patient-reported dryness (Trials 012 and 013) or discomfort (Trials 030, 031,and 032), Staining=nasal region fluorescein staining, Redness=investigator-assessed ocular redness, Schirmer Test=tear production score, Schirmer Response=≥10 mm response, FDA=US Food and Drug Administration, NDA=New Drug Application for reproxalap for the treatment of the signs and symptoms dry eye disease Five of the nine efficacy trials submitted in the NDA achieved all primary endpoints, and the P values for 9 of 14 endpoints were less than 0.05.
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Aldeyra Therapeutics Form 8-K, filed September 29, 2026

TRIAL PRIMARY ENDPOINT(S) P<0.05 FDA POSITION ALDEYRA POSITION 012 Symptoms Staining ✓ Co-primary not met Supportive for symptoms 013 Symptoms ✓ Endpoint met Endpoint met 019 Redness Endpoint not met Supportive for Schirmer Test (secondary P<0.0001), Schirmer Response (post-hoc P<0.0001) 023 Schirmer Test Schirmer Response ✓ ✓ Methodological issues Endpoints met, methodological sensitivity testing supportive of outcome 024 Redness Symptoms Schirmer Test ✓ Redness endpoint met Redness endpoint met; Symptoms and Schirmer Test numerically supportive 027 Redness Schirmer Test ✓ ✓ Redness met, Schirmer Test methodological issues Both endpoints met, methodological sensitivity testing supportive of outcome for Schirmer Test 030 Symptoms ✓ Methodological issues Endpoint met, methodological sensitivity testing supportive of outcome 031 Symptoms Not statistically significant Results numerically favored reproxalap 032 Symptoms ✓ Endpoint met Endpoint met
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Prepared from public FDA letters and SEC filings: every quoted passage is matched to the original document, and every “not in” statement comes from a search of the whole document, before it is published. Questions, summaries and connecting sentences are EphemerisX’s wording. Not investment advice. How this research works → · Ask the FDA and SEC Ephemeris →