Risk analysis (preview)

How Pro is being built to go beyond signals: evidence-backed risk assessments drawn from the public record, ready for your risk process.

A signal says something happened. A risk assessment says what it means for a decision you have to make, how likely and how severe it is, and what evidence it rests on. Pro is being built to produce the second, not just the first.

From indicator to assessment#

	Indicator	Risk assessment
Question	Did the committee vote against?	How exposed is a decision to FDA acting against its committee?
Output	A vote count	A finding, the evidence behind it, its precedent in the record, and what would change it
Evidence	One document	Every relevant decision, filing and event, each cited
Over time	A snapshot	Re-assessed when the record changes, with the change shown

What an assessment holds#

Finding: The risk, stated plainly, for example “FDA has approved an anti-amyloid antibody after a negative committee vote.”
Evidence: Every record it rests on, each cited to its document and page.
Precedent: How often the same pattern appears across the record, for example “1 of 3 committee-reviewed approvals.”
Exposure: Which of your watched drugs, companies or programmes share the pattern.
Change log: What moved the assessment, and when: a new letter, filing, vote or flight.

Where it applies#

Area	Example assessment
Regulatory	Exposure to a complete response letter, or to FDA departing from an earlier position (see the threads)
Transaction	Signals that a counterparty is in talks before a filing (see the private-jet example)
Disclosure	Gaps between what a regulator wrote and what a company told investors (see FDA refusal → investors)
Safety and incidents	Recurring findings across accident investigations and the actions that followed

Into your risk process#

Assessments are built to move into the systems your team already uses to record, review and track risk. See Reports and connectors.